ABSTRACT

Endowments, wealthy families and retired individuals are often concerned, first and foremost, about preserving their wealth or avoiding the possibility of depleted funds during their lifetime. This paper examines the extent to which a variety of real estate asset types, in addition to a traditional stocks and bonds allocation, can help preserve wealth or avoid a financial shortfall event subject to periodic withdrawals over an extended time period. Using a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, we analyse the resiliency of eight different real estate investment vehicles as a rule of thumb of a 4% annual withdrawal. Our results show that some – in most cases meaningful – portfolio allocation to each of these investment vehicles reduces the chance of a financial shortfall over long-term horizons of 30 or 50 years. Similarly, when wealth preservation is desired, allocation to each of these investment vehicles increases investors’ wealth preservation probability. Overall, it appears that equity REITs provide the greatest benefit to the portfolio compared with other real estate investment vehicles. These findings support portfolio allocation into real estate vehicles for investors that seek to preserve wealth or avoid financial ruin.

摘要

捐赠基金、富裕家庭和退休人士通常首先关心的是如何保护他们的财富或避免在其一生中资金耗尽的可能性。本文研究了除了传统的股票和债券配置之外，各种房地产资产类型在多大程度上可以帮助保存财富或避免因在较长时间段内定期提款而导致的财务短缺事件。使用蒙特卡洛模拟技术，我们根据每年 4% 的提款率来分析八种不同房地产投资工具的弹性。我们的研究结果表明，在大多数情况下，对这些投资工具中的每一个进行投资组合配置可以减少 30 年或 50 年的长期财务短缺的可能性。相似地，当需要财富保值时，分配到这些投资工具中的每一个都会增加投资者的财富保值概率。总体而言，与其他房地产投资工具相比，股权 REIT 似乎为投资组合提供了最大的收益。这些发现支持寻求保全财富或避免金融破产的投资者将投资组合配置到房地产工具中。