The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling complexity impede accurate storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in real time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making over the Bengal delta shorelines as well as over other similar cyclone-prone regions.

中文翻译：

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在孟加拉三角洲建立高效的风暴潮和洪水预报系统：追逐超级气旋 Amphan

孟加拉湾是众所周知的历史上一些最致命气旋的温床。尽管最近取得了进展，但这个大型三角洲的复杂形态和流体动力学以及相关的建模复杂性阻碍了在这个高度脆弱的地区进行准确的风暴潮预报。在这里，我们提出了一个物理一致且计算效率高的风暴潮预报系统的概念证明，该系统可在有限资源下实时处理。借助最先进的波耦合流体动力学数值模拟系统，我们实时预测了最近的超级气旋 Amphan。根据可用的观察结果，我们评估了建模框架的质量。我们确认了在这个活跃而复杂的沿海地区进行高效、实时的洪水和淹没预测所需的关键要素的证据。