Previous research in southwest British Columbia (BC) suggested that projected climate change would result in in increases in the frequency of debris flows on the order of a 10% by the end of the century compared to the last approximately 30 years (Jakob and Lambert, 2009). Advances in climate modeling now allow higher resolution simulation of precipitation compared to the work completed in 2009. Regional climate models have become better able to resolve convective activity at a finer temporal scale. This paper quantifies and projects changes in the frequency and magnitude of shallow landslides and resulting debris flows because of the impacts of climate change for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, BC. Analysis of a landslide database curated by Metro Vancouver shows a doubling in the frequency of landslides since 1981, prior to which recording was sporadic. How much of the increase since 1981 is attributable to recording improvements cannot be quantified which implies that it is too early to attribute frequency changes unambiguously to climate change. Prior to 2004, the average volume of shallow landslides was 1800 m³, whereas after 2004, this volume increased 7-fold to 13,000 m³. In particular, landslides with volumes exceeding 10,000 m³ appear to have increased abruptly since in the early 2000s. Using a Poisson model, we project an increase of up to 300% in the frequency of shallow landslides until the end of this century. A multivariate regression analysis suggests that this increase in landslide frequency will be accompanied by a potential increase in the average landslide volume of up to 50% for Relative Concentration Path (RCP) 8.5. Such changes may challenge watershed management attributable to increases in sediment transport rates, widening channels and in some cases may transition from single thread to braiding or anastomosing. The likelihood of landslides impacting and impounding water courses is projected to increase as is the turbidity in reservoirs because of the influx of fine-grained sediment. Outside of the Vancouver watersheds, infrastructures will increasingly be tested by more frequent and sometimes higher magnitude landslides.

先前在不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 西南部的研究表明，与过去大约 30 年相比，预计的气候变化将导致到本世纪末泥石流频率增加 10%（雅各布和兰伯特， 2009）。与 2009 年完成的工作相比，气候建模的进步现在允许对降水进行更高分辨率的模拟。区域气候模型已经能够更好地在更精细的时间尺度上解析对流活动。由于气候变化对不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华北岸山脉的影响，本文量化并预测了浅层滑坡和由此产生的泥石流的频率和幅度的变化。对大温哥华地区滑坡数据库的分析显示，自 1981 年以来，滑坡频率翻了一番，在此之前，录音是零星的。自 1981 年以来的增长有多少归因于记录的改进无法量化，这意味着将频率变化明确地归因于气候变化还为时过早。2004年以前，浅层滑坡平均体积为1800 m³，而在 2004 年之后，该体积增加了 7 倍，达到 13,000 m ³。特别是体积超过 10,000 m ^{3 的}滑坡似乎自 2000 年代初以来突然增加。使用泊松模型，我们预计到本世纪末浅层滑坡的频率将增加 300%。多元回归分析表明，对于相对集中路径 (RCP) 8.5，滑坡频率的这种增加将伴随平均滑坡体积增加 50%。由于沉积物运输速率增加、渠道加宽，并且在某些情况下可能从单线过渡到编织或吻合，这些变化可能会挑战流域管理。由于细粒沉积物的流入，滑坡影响和蓄水道的可能性预计会增加，水库中的浊度也会增加。在温哥华流域之外，