The article presents predictive estimates of changes in river water resources in eleven economic regions of the Russian Federation for the period of 2030 and 2050 based on the use of river runoff data of the atmospheric and ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) of the CMIP5 project. An overview of the design schemes of the AOGCM river runoff used in the research is made. The methodology uses an ensemble approach. The predictive estimates were carried out for two forecast periods 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 in relation to the period 1981-2000, which was chosen as the base one. The calculations were made on the basis of an ensemble of 24 selected models for both the moderately aggressive RCP4.5 scenario and the “hard” RCP8.5 scenario. The results obtained were averaged over 20-year periods and compared with the corresponding values for the period 1981-2000. According to the results obtained, in the coming decades there is no reason to expect any significant changes in river flow as a result of climate change. For most of the country's territory, a slight increase in annual runoff is most likely, which is within the limits of its natural variability. The most abundant river water resources will be the Asian part of the Russian Federation and the adjacent eastern part of the European territory of Russia. The most problematic from the point of view of water resources provision will be the Central Black Earth, North Caucasus and Volga economic regions. There will be more water in those regions where it is sufficient, and less where it is most needed. It should be noted that the technique presented in this article is considered by the authors primarily as one of the alternative forecasting methods that must be used in conjunction with other accepted methods. However, given the continuous process of improving the AOGCMs, as well as the quality of the information they provide, this approach should be considered as one of the most promising.

本文基于使用 CMIP5 项目大气和海洋环流模型 (AOGCM) 的河流径流数据，对 2030 年和 2050 年期间俄罗斯联邦 11 个经济区的河流水资源变化进行了预测估计。概述了研究中使用的AOGCM河流径流设计方案。该方法使用集成方法。预测估计是针对 2021-2040 年和 2041-2060 年的两个预测期进行的，而 1981-2000 年被选为基准期。这些计算是在 24 个选定模型的集合的基础上进行的，这些模型适用于适度激进的 RCP4.5 情景和“硬”RCP8.5 情景。获得的结果是 20 年期间的平均值，并与 1981-2000 年期间的相应值进行比较。根据获得的结果，在未来几十年中，没有理由预期气候变化会导致河流流量发生任何重大变化。对于该国的大部分领土，年径流最有可能略有增加，这在其自然变率的范围内。最丰富的河流水资源将是俄罗斯联邦的亚洲部分和毗邻的俄罗斯欧洲领土东部。从水资源供应的角度来看，问题最大的将是中部黑土、北高加索和伏尔加经济区。那些水充足的地区将会有更多的水，而最需要的地区则更少。应该注意的是，本文中介绍的技术主要被作者视为必须与其他公认方法结合使用的替代预测方法之一。然而，考虑到 AOGCM 不断改进的过程，以及它们提供的信息的质量，这种方法应该被认为是最有前途的方法之一。