The identification of factors contributing to strong year classes of marine fishes has been a constant goal toward a mechanistic understanding of recruitment variability. Here, we explored a 26-year time series of the abundance of early juvenile red drum along the North Carolina coast to identify environmental features associated with variable recruitment success. The study location was near the northern edge of the species latitudinal range, and we hypothesized that consistent environmental forcing would be linked to the formation of strong red drum year classes. Patterns of variability in seasonal environmental features were disaggregated into multiple forms of temporal periodicity and analyzed using generalized additive models. We also contrasted patterns of environmental variation that occurred during the strongest recruitment events with those coinciding with the weakest red drum year classes. The early shift, during August, to favorable wind conditions was the most consistent environmental feature associated with red drum recruitment success. The combined duration and magnitude of N and NE winds during August of strong recruitment years was nearly double the level observed during weak recruitment years. Elevated nearshore sea surface temperatures early in the spawning season were also found to occur during years that produced strong year classes. Coastal productivity, indexed using chlorophyll a concentration, was positively associated with red drum recruitment, but also highlighted the need for more spatially resolved productivity data. Our findings highlight the importance of environment-recruitment linkages for marine fishes, especially near distributional boundaries where conditions to promote year class success can be brief.

中文翻译：

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对沿海红鼓种群的环境招聘协会的分析揭示了年级强度与近岸风的早期变化之间的一致联系

确定导致海洋鱼类强年分类的因素一直是对补充变异的机械理解的一个不变的目标。在这里，我们探索了北卡罗来纳州海岸早期少年红鼓丰富的 26 年时间序列，以确定与可变招募成功相关的环境特征。研究地点靠近物种纬度范围的北部边缘，我们假设一致的环境强迫将与强红鼓年级的形成有关。季节性环境特征的变异模式被分解为多种形式的时间周期性，并使用广义加性模型进行分析。我们还将最强招募活动期间发生的环境变化模式与最弱的红鼓年级期间发生的环境变化模式进行了对比。在 8 月份早期转向有利的风力条件是与红鼓招募成功相关的最一致的环境特征。在强补充年 8 月，N 和 NE 风的持续时间和强度的总和几乎是弱补充年观察到的水平的两倍。在产卵季节早期的近岸海面温度升高也发生在产生强年级的年份。沿海生产力，使用叶绿素索引 有利的风力条件是与红鼓招募成功相关的最一致的环境特征。在强补充年 8 月，N 和 NE 风的持续时间和强度的总和几乎是弱补充年观察到的水平的两倍。在产卵季节早期的近岸海面温度升高也发生在产生强年级的年份。沿海生产力，使用叶绿素索引 有利的风力条件是与红鼓招募成功相关的最一致的环境特征。在强补充年 8 月，N 和 NE 风的持续时间和强度的总和几乎是弱补充年观察到的水平的两倍。在产卵季节早期的近岸海面温度升高也发生在产生强年级的年份。沿海生产力，使用叶绿素索引一个集中，呈正红鼓招聘有关，但也强调需要更多的空间分辨的生产率数据。我们的研究结果强调了海洋鱼类的环境 - 招募联系的重要性，尤其是在分布边界附近，促进年度成功的条件可能很短。