This study investigates the space-temporal growth of homicide rates in Brazil from 2000 to 2017 and identifies determinants of the country’s growth of homicide rates. Data from the Brazilian Information System on Mortality and Censuses are used to estimate growth models combined with spatial statistics and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Findings show evidence of change in the geographical distribution of lethal violence over time, characterized by a steady increase in the North and Northeast regions and a reduction in growth in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. Social disorganization factors namely deprivation, ethnic heterogeneity, and urbanization are significant positive determinants of the growth of homicide rates. The results show a reduction of the predictive strength of income inequality and an increase in that of unemployment from the year 2010 to 2017. The theoretical and policy implications of these results are discussed.

本研究调查了 2000 年至 2017 年巴西凶杀率的时空增长，并确定了该国凶杀率增长的决定因素。来自巴西死亡率和人口普查信息系统的数据用于估计与空间统计和地理信息系统 (GIS) 相结合的增长模型。调查结果显示了致命暴力的地理分布随时间发生变化的证据，其特点是巴西北部和东北部地区稳步增加，而巴西南部和东南部地区增长放缓。社会解体因素，即贫困、种族异质性和城市化，是凶杀率增长的重要积极决定因素。