This study investigates the hypothesis that climate change influences the distribution of the corallivore crown-of-thorns starfish Ancanthaster planci L. and one of its predators, the endangered humphead wrasse Cheilinus undulatus (Rüpell 1835). The aim is to provide a robust global distribution estimation examining the potential habitat gaps and overlays between the two species considering the predator-prey interaction. A single-parameter perturbation design with the species distribution model MaxEnt was applied to select the best performing model run for analysing the global and local trends in Indonesia based upon projected climate change under the IPCC RCP6.0 emission scenario. The paper represents the first global modelling study about the future distributions for both species by 2050. The simulations showed a slight decline of potential suitability for A. planci but gains for C. undulatus with a poleward shift for both. C. undulatus thrives under higher temperatures, whereas A. planci seems to be sensitive to increasing temperature in Indonesia. However, whilst future climate change is expected to benefit C. undulatus, the species remain highly vulnerable to (often illegal) fishing pressures and appropriate monitoring and management measures remain a priority to ensure their conservation in the long term.

本研究调查了气候变化影响珊瑚鱼棘冠海星Ancanthaster planci L. 及其捕食者之一，濒临灭绝的驼头濑鱼Cheilinus undulatus分布的假设（鲁佩尔 1835 年）。目的是提供一个强大的全球分布估计，检查考虑到捕食者 - 猎物相互作用的两个物种之间的潜在栖息地差距和重叠。基于 IPCC RCP6.0 排放情景下的预测气候变化，应用具有物种分布模型 MaxEnt 的单参数扰动设计来选择性能最佳的模型运行，以分析印度尼西亚的全球和本地趋势。这篇论文代表了到 2050 年关于这两种物种未来分布的首次全球建模研究。模拟显示A. planci的潜在适用性略有下降，但C. undulatus增加，两者都向极移。C. undulatus在较高温度下茁壮成长，而A. planci似乎对印度尼西亚的气温升高很敏感。然而，虽然预计未来的气候变化将使C. undulatus受益，但该物种仍然极易受到（通常是非法的）捕捞压力的影响，适当的监测和管理措施仍然是确保其长期保护的优先事项。