Oil spills on the ground cause significant damage to the geological environment, including groundwater, contaminating it and making it uninhabitable. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the scale of the oil spill and the consequences of contamination of the geological environment to minimize the damage. In the literature, there are plenty of approaches for oil spill prediction on the water. However, there is a lack of approaches for predicting oil spills in the geological environment. This paper proposes a new fuzzy model for predicting oil spills on the ground. It uses fuzzy set theory to express the uncertainty of the spilled oil volume and the specific oil capacity to make predictions more efficient and effective. It consists of the following parts: formulating a hypothesis based on initial oil spill data, fuzzy modelling of oil spill penetration, evaluating the hypothesis of whether the spilled oil will penetrate the ground layer and groundwater and finally evaluating the effectiveness of the proposition. The accuracy and reliability of the proposed model were assessed using synthetic data of oil spill penetrations into the ground and predictions of nine experts. The obtained experimental results show that the proposed fuzzy model is valid and does not contradict reality. Furthermore, statistical parameter (MAE and RMSE) shows that the proposed fuzzy model can predict the geological oil spill consequences with sufficient accuracy. It is practical and contributes to the body of knowledge in predicting geological oil spills. In addition, it will assist the practitioner in making decisions about how to respond to an oil spill.

地面上的石油泄漏对包括地下水在内的地质环境造成重大破坏，污染了它并使其无法居住。因此，有必要预测石油泄漏的规模和地质环境污染的后果，以尽量减少损失。在文献中，有很多方法可以预测水上溢油。然而，缺乏预测地质环境中石油泄漏的方法。本文提出了一种新的模糊模型来预测地面溢油。它使用模糊集理论来表达溢油量和比油量的不确定性，使预测更加高效和有效。它由以下部分组成：根据初始溢油数据制定假设，溢油渗透模糊建模，评估溢油是否会渗透地层和地下水的假设，最终评估该假设的有效性。使用溢油渗透到地面的合成数据和九位专家的预测来评估所提出模型的准确性和可靠性。得到的实验结果表明，所提出的模糊模型是有效的，与实际情况不矛盾。此外，统计参数（MAE 和RMSE）表明，所提出的模糊模型可以足够准确地预测地质溢油后果。它是实用的，有助于形成预测地质溢油的知识体系。此外，它将帮助从业者做出如何应对漏油的决定。评估溢油是否会渗入地层和地下水的假设，并最终评估该命题的有效性。使用溢油渗透到地面的合成数据和九位专家的预测来评估所提出模型的准确性和可靠性。得到的实验结果表明，所提出的模糊模型是有效的，与实际情况不矛盾。此外，统计参数（MAE 和RMSE）表明，所提出的模糊模型可以足够准确地预测地质溢油后果。它是实用的，有助于形成预测地质溢油的知识体系。此外，它将帮助从业者做出如何应对漏油的决定。评估溢油是否会渗入地层和地下水的假设，并最终评估该命题的有效性。使用溢油渗透到地面的合成数据和九位专家的预测来评估所提出模型的准确性和可靠性。得到的实验结果表明，所提出的模糊模型是有效的，与实际情况不矛盾。此外，统计参数（MAE 和RMSE）表明，所提出的模糊模型可以足够准确地预测地质溢油后果。它是实用的，有助于形成预测地质溢油的知识体系。此外，它将帮助从业者做出如何应对漏油的决定。