ABSTRACT

In this study, a hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) composed of solar photovoltaic and biogas co-firing is designed for a hazelnut cracking plant in Ordu province of Turkey. Technical and economic analysis are carried out based on the change in government incentives on renewable sources before (Option A) and after 2021 (Option B) based on net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE). In addition, four different HRES configurations namely Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 are analyzed to compare energy generation with/without co-firing of hazelnut shell and natural gas alongside with/without solar photovoltaic (PV). Sensitivity analysis is also made by considering grid sale capacity, inflation rate, discount rate, biomass price, and sellback rate. It is found that Option A has the lowest NPC and COE values, which are estimated as $3.000 M and $0.098/kW, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis of HRES configuration, total NPC and COE values between nominal discount rate and biomass price generally increase, while the values between expected inflation rate and sellback rate are on a downward trend. Consequently, Scenario-4 has the lowest NPC and COE values, and the highest renewable fraction at around 73.6%, whereas CO₂ and NO_x emissions are lowest in Scenario-2.

摘要

在这项研究中，为土耳其奥尔杜省的榛子裂解厂设计了一种由太阳能光伏和沼气混烧组成的混合可再生能源系统 (HRES)。技术经济分析基于政府对可再生能源的激励在 2021 年前（选项 A）和 2021 年后（选项 B）的变化，以净现值（NPC）和能源成本（COE）为基础。此外，还分析了四种不同的 HRES 配置，即场景 1、2、3 和 4，以比较有/无榛子壳和天然气共烧以及有/无太阳能光伏 (PV) 的发电情况。还考虑电网销售容量、通货膨胀率、贴现率、生物质价格和回售率进行敏感性分析。发现选项 A 的 NPC 和 COE 值最低，估计为 $3.000 M 和 $0。分别为 098/kW。在HRES配置的敏感性分析中，名义贴现率与生物质价格之间的总NPC和COE值普遍上升，而预期通胀率与回售率之间的值呈下降趋势。因此，情景 4 的 NPC 和 COE 值最低，可再生比例最高，约为 73.6%，而 CO₂和 NO _x排放在情景 2 中最低。