Population exposure to air pollutants varies dramatically with time and location on the globe. Taking into account the changing climate, the engaged emission reduction policies and the expected increase in population, the health risks associated with this phenomenon may also change significantly in the near future. In regions such as the Mediterranean, exposed to multiple forms of air pollution and highly sensitive to climate change, it is obviously critical to define trends in human exposure to air pollutants. The objective of this article is to explore the features of population exposure to air pollution in the French Mediterranean coast, under different climatic situations, using distinct emission configurations, and for divergent scenarios of population growth. The use of contrasting situations for these 3 parameters makes it possible to better address the variability of exposure in the different areas of the territory, as a global risk for populations. For this purpose, five 12 month-duration simulations have been carried out as case studies in the Provence Alpes Côtes d’Azur (PACA) region, located in the south-east of France: a 2005 simulation is used as the reference situation, and two more years of simulation are used as samples of time horizons 2030 and 2050, each of which was simulated twice sampling representative future climate years according to representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Estimates of population change were prepared for the study area, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The results show that albeit the growing population, the exposure to most atmospheric components decreases because of emission reduction policies. This, however, is not true for all species. The population exposure to dust species increases for spring, when most dust episodes occur. In addition, exposure to ozone – while decreasing on the average - shows an increase in urban areas. Finally, while the concentrations of BSOA (secondary organic aerosol of biogenic origin) increase in the future scenarios, this tendency is not marked enough to offset the population decrease in rural areas in most SSP scenarios. On the reverse, exposure to BSOA does show an increase in urban areas where population is expected to grow. A county per county analysis is conducted, showing that the three coastal counties of the PACA region will experience higher ozone, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, dust and BSOA exposure. The purpose of our work is to produce a case study in which we compare pollutant concentration changes and population weighed exposure changes on a meteorological situation that goes out of the current distribution. For this case study, we propose to distinguish the part of exposure changes due pollutant concentration and population changes. The choice of the study case (weather and horizon) is discussed in the text. This approach differs from the scenario approach, which focuses on the analysis of a trend representative of future years.

全球空气污染物暴露的人口随时间和地点的不同而有显着差异。考虑到气候变化、减排政策的实施以及人口的预期增长，与这一现象相关的健康风险在不久的将来也可能发生显着变化。在地中海等地区，暴露于多种形式的空气污染并且对气候变化高度敏感，明确人类暴露于空气污染物的趋势显然至关重要。本文的目的是探索法国地中海沿岸人口在不同气候条件下、使用不同排放配置和不同人口增长情景下暴露于空气污染的特征。对这 3 个参数使用对比情况可以更好地解决领土不同地区暴露的可变性，因为这是人口的全球风险。为此，在位于法国东南部的普罗旺斯阿尔卑斯蓝色海岸 (PACA) 地区进行了五个为期 12 个月的模拟作为案例研究：使用 2005 年的模拟作为参考情况，以及将另外两年的模拟用作 2030 年和 2050 年时间范围的样本，根据代表性浓度路径情景 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5，每个模拟年对代表性未来气候年进行两次采样。使用共享的社会经济途径 (SSP) 情景为研究区域准备了人口变化估计值。结果表明，尽管人口不断增长，由于减排政策，对大多数大气成分的暴露减少了。然而，这并不适用于所有物种。春季，当大多数沙尘事件发生时，人们对沙尘种类的暴露会增加。此外，臭氧暴露——虽然平均下降——表明城市地区有所增加。最后，虽然 BSOA（生物来源的二次有机气溶胶）的浓度在未来情景中会增加，但这种趋势不足以抵消大多数 SSP 情景中农村地区的人口减少。相反，接触 BSOA 确实表明人口预计会增长的城市地区有所增加。以县为单位进行分析，显示PACA地区的三个沿海县将经历更高的臭氧、PM 春季，当大多数沙尘事件发生时，人们对沙尘种类的暴露会增加。此外，臭氧暴露——虽然平均下降——表明城市地区有所增加。最后，虽然 BSOA（生物来源的二次有机气溶胶）的浓度在未来情景中会增加，但这种趋势不足以抵消大多数 SSP 情景中农村地区的人口减少。相反，接触 BSOA 确实表明人口预计会增长的城市地区有所增加。以县为单位进行分析，显示PACA地区的三个沿海县将经历更高的臭氧、PM 春季，当大多数沙尘事件发生时，人们对沙尘种类的暴露会增加。此外，臭氧暴露——虽然平均下降——表明城市地区有所增加。最后，虽然 BSOA（生物来源的二次有机气溶胶）的浓度在未来情景中会增加，但这种趋势不足以抵消大多数 SSP 情景中农村地区的人口减少。相反，接触 BSOA 确实表明人口预计会增长的城市地区有所增加。以县为单位进行分析，显示PACA地区的三个沿海县将经历更高的臭氧、PM 最后，虽然 BSOA（生物来源的二次有机气溶胶）的浓度在未来情景中会增加，但这种趋势不足以抵消大多数 SSP 情景中农村地区的人口减少。相反，接触 BSOA 确实表明人口预计会增长的城市地区有所增加。以县为单位进行分析，显示PACA地区的三个沿海县将经历更高的臭氧、PM 最后，虽然 BSOA（生物来源的二次有机气溶胶）的浓度在未来情景中会增加，但这种趋势不足以抵消大多数 SSP 情景中农村地区的人口减少。相反，接触 BSOA 确实表明人口预计会增长的城市地区有所增加。以县为单位进行分析，显示PACA地区的三个沿海县将经历更高的臭氧、PM₁₀和 PM _2.5、灰尘和 BSOA 暴露。我们工作的目的是制作一个案例研究，在该案例研究中，我们在超出当前分布的气象情况下比较污染物浓度变化和人口加权暴露变化。对于本案例研究，我们建议区分由于污染物浓度和人口变化引起的暴露变化部分。文中讨论了研究案例（天气和地平线）的选择。这种方法不同于情景方法，情景方法侧重于分析代表未来年份的趋势。