Purpose

In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm’s access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm’s capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

The change in firms’ capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms’ investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory.

Findings

The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms’ capital expenditure.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 危机期间的需求或供应冲击：来自印度尼西亚上市公司的经验证据

目的

在研究经济波动时，研究人员经常参考资本获取受损理论，这些理论主要从银行贷款供应的角度解释，企业投资获取的冲击将减少其资本支出和危机期间的净债务发行。然而，一些研究表明，情况并非总是如此。需求冲击理论可以解释危机期间公司资本支出和净债务发行量的减少，但两者之间不应存在因果关系。这是因为企业在危机期间自然不会投资，因为危机期间投资财富减少。本文旨在研究有关印度尼西亚 Covid-19 危机的这些理论。

设计/方法/方法

使用跨四个公司维度的非参数差异和匹配估计量分析公司资本支出和净债务发行的变化，以了解供应冲击理论的含义是否适用于当前危机，或者该公司是否适用危机期间自然不投资。此外，本文提供了面板回归的结果，以确认企业投资资金与资本支出之间的因果关系，并增加了消费者信心指数以适应需求冲击理论的影响。

发现

本文的结果表明，供应冲击理论的含义无法解释 Covid-19 危机期间的经济波动。相反，结果表明企业自然不想在危机期间进行投资，而需求冲击可以更好地解释 Covid-19 危机期间的经济波动。面板回归的结果证实了这一点，该结果表明，只有消费者信心指数与企业的资本支出存在显着的正相关关系。

原创性/价值

这是第一项研究与印度尼西亚的 Covid-19 危机相关的资本获取受损理论。