Human activity influences both the occurrence and impact of landslides in mountainous environments. Population pressure and the associated land-use changes are assumed to exacerbate landslide risk, yet there is a lack of statistical evidence to support this claim, especially in the Global South where historical records are scarce. In this work, we explore the interactions between population, deforestation and landslide risk in the Kivu Rift in Africa. To do so, we develop a holistic landslide risk model that evaluates 58 years of population and forest-cover trends. We show that the current landslide risk in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is twice as high as in neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi. Congolese households, on average, populate more hazardous terrain, probably as a result of conflicts and economic pull factors such as mining. Moreover, the recent large-scale deforestation of primary rainforest in the DRC has considerably exacerbated the landslide risk. Our analysis demonstrates how the legacy of deforestation, conflicts and population dynamics is reflected in the landslide risk in the Kivu Rift.

人类活动影响山地环境中滑坡的发生和影响。人口压力和相关的土地利用变化被认为会加剧滑坡风险，但缺乏统计证据支持这一说法，尤其是在历史记录稀缺的全球南部。在这项工作中，我们探索了非洲基伍裂谷的人口、森林砍伐和滑坡风险之间的相互作用。为此，我们开发了一个整体的滑坡风险模型，用于评估 58 年的人口和森林覆盖趋势。我们表明，目前刚果民主共和国东部 (DRC) 的滑坡风险是邻国卢旺达和布隆迪的两倍。平均而言，刚果家庭居住在更危险的地区，可能是由于冲突和采矿等经济拉动因素造成的。此外，最近刚果民主共和国对原始雨林的大规模砍伐大大加剧了滑坡风险。我们的分析展示了森林砍伐、冲突和人口动态的遗产如何反映在基伍裂谷的滑坡风险中。