This study presented ASPEN Base Case Simulation (BCS) using optimum laboratory experimental data, techno-economic predictive models, and multi-objective optimum profitability scenario of biodiesel production from palm kernel oil. The BCS was developed in ASPEN Batch Process Developer V10 environment. Predictive models for predicting and optimizing techno-economic parameters: return on investment (ROI), payback time (PBT), net present value (NPV), and production capacity (PC) were achieved in Historical Data Design of Design Expert. The Oracle Crystal Ball was used for Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model uncertainty and sensitivity verification. The BCS results for 3,000,000 kg/year gave batch size, production rate, production batch number 13,482.48 kg, 5.72 kg/min, and 223 batches/year respectively. The correlation coefficients of ROI, PBT, NPV, and PC predictive models are 0.969, 0.982, 0.987, and 0.987, respectively. The MCS certainty of the techno-economic models gave a negligible uncertain value (certainty = 100%). The optimum ROI, PBT, NPV, and PC were feasible at 39.9%, 2.48 years, $1,001,320, and 3,000,690 kg, respectively. Thus, ASPEN Batch Process Developer and Monte Carlo Simulation are capable of performing palm kernel biodiesel production techno-economic and sensitivity analyses.

Graphic Abstract

中文翻译：

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棕榈仁油生物柴油生产的工艺设计、技术经济建模和不确定性分析

本研究使用最佳实验室实验数据、技术经济预测模型和棕榈仁油生产生物柴油的多目标最佳盈利方案，展示了 ASPEN 基本案例模拟 (BCS)。BCS 是在 ASPEN Batch Process Developer V10 环境中开发的。用于预测和优化技术经济参数的预测模型：投资回报率 (ROI)、投资回收期 (PBT)、净现值 (NPV) 和生产能力 (PC) 在 Design Expert 的历史数据设计中实现。Oracle Crystal Ball 用于蒙特卡罗模拟 (MCS) 模型不确定性和灵敏度验证。3,000,000 kg/年的 BCS 结果分别给出了批次大小、生产率、生产批号 13,482.48 kg、5.72 kg/min 和 223 个批次/年。ROI、PBT、NPV的相关系数，PC 预测模型分别为 0.969、0.982、0.987 和 0.987。技术经济模型的 MCS 确定性给出的不确定值可以忽略不计（确定性 = 100%）。最佳 ROI、PBT、NPV 和 PC 分别在 39.9%、2.48 年、1,001,320 美元和 3,000,690 公斤时可行。因此，ASPEN Batch Process Developer 和 Monte Carlo Simulation 能够执行棕榈仁生物柴油生产技术经济和敏感性分析。

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