The study aimed to evaluate the contribution of the FTO A/T polymorphism (rs9939609) to the prediction of the future type 2 diabetes (T2D). A population-based prospective study included 1443 nondiabetic subjects at baseline, and they were examined for developing T2D after 5-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the hazard ratio (HR) of rs9939609 to the future T2D in the models adjusted for the confounding factors including socio-economic status, lifestyle factors (smoking and drinking history, sporting habits, and leisure time), and clinical patterns (obese status, blood pressures, and dyslipidemia) at baseline. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to measure the power to predict individuals with T2D. The FTO-rs9939609 polymorphism was a significant predictor of future T2D in the model unadjusted, and it remained significant in the final model after adjustment for the confounding factors, showing an additive effect of the A-allele (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.02–1.78, P = 0.036, AUC = 0.676). For normoglycemic subjects at baseline, the similar final adjusted model reported the increased HR per A-allele (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.09–2.07, P = 0.012, AUC = 0.697). Five-year changes in BMI, waist circumference, and systolic blood pressure did not remove the contribution of rs9939609 to increased HR of T2D. The population attributable risk for risk genotype was 13.6%. In conclusion, the study indicates that the FTO-rs9939609 polymorphism is an important genetic predictor for future T2D in Vietnamese population.

该研究旨在评估FTO A/T 多态性 ( rs9939609 ) 对预测未来 2 型糖尿病 (T2D) 的贡献。一项基于人群的前瞻性研究包括 1443 名基线非糖尿病受试者，并在 5 年随访后检查他们是否发展为 T2D。Cox比例风险模型用于评估rs9939609的风险比（HR）模型中对未来 T2D 进行了调整，包括基线时的社会经济地位、生活方式因素（吸烟和饮酒史、运动习惯和休闲时间）和临床模式（肥胖状态、血压和血脂异常）。受试者工作特征曲线下面积 (AUC) 用于测量预测 T2D 个体的能力。FTO - rs9939609多态性是未调整模型中未来 T2D的重要预测因子，在调整混杂因素后在最终模型中仍然显着，显示 A 等位基因的加性效应（HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.02–1.78，P = 0.036，AUC = 0.676）。对于基线血糖正常的受试者，类似的最终调整模型报告每个 A 等位基因的 HR 增加（HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.09-2.07, P  = 0.012, AUC = 0.697）。BMI、腰围和收缩压的五年变化并没有消除rs9939609对 T2D HR 增加的贡献。风险基因型的人群归因风险为 13.6%。总之，该研究表明FTO -rs9939609 多态性是越南人群未来 T2D 的重要遗传预测因子。