Bivalve aquaculture is a major industry supporting food production in coastal areas. Although sea water temperature increase due to climate change is expected to affect marine ecosystems in a variety of ways, it is important to determine whether changes in water temperature and associated changes in the trophic conditions will enhance or inhibit the production of bivalves. In this study, I conducted a field survey of environmental factors and growth rates of the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas) in the subarctic estuarine areas (Akkeshi-ko Lagoon and Akkeshi Bay) and evaluated the effects of climate warming using numerical simulations. In situ cage experiments with two different year-classes were conducted and oyster growth varied between the two stations in the 2nd year-class mainly in response to spatial variation in water temperature. A three dimensional physical-ecosystem coupled model including a growth model of oyster was applied and the model could reproduce the differences in present (the year 2014) growth patterns between stations. The climate warming scenarios showed that oyster production would increase in both lagoon and bay. However, the timing and location of weight loss due to spawning will differ, so caution will need to be exercised regarding the timing of the oyster harvest in the future.

双壳贝类养殖是沿海地区支持粮食生产的主要产业。尽管预计气候变化引起的海水温度升高会以多种方式影响海洋生态系统，但重要的是要确定水温的变化和营养条件的相关变化是否会促进或抑制双壳类动物的生产。在这项研究中，我对亚北极河口地区（厚岸湖和厚岸湾）的太平洋牡蛎（Magallana gigas）的环境因素和增长率进行了实地调查，并使用数值模拟评估了气候变暖的影响。就地进行了两个不同年份的网箱实验，第二年两个站点的牡蛎生长变化主要是由于水温的空间变化。应用包括牡蛎生长模型在内的三维物理-生态系统耦合模型，该模型可以再现站点之间当前（2014年）生长模式的差异。气候变暖情景表明，泻湖和海湾的牡蛎产量都会增加。然而，由于产卵导致体重减轻的时间和地点会有所不同，因此需要谨慎对待未来的牡蛎收获时间。