This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. This study evaluates the climate change impact on the TSWT by considering future evaporation rates and bathymetric changes in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. The findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation under all climate impact scenarios. Consequently, inflows to the reservoirs will decline by 19% (RCP 4.5) and 53% (RCP 8.5) for 2070–2099, which could reduce water volumes that could be transferred to the Segura basin by more than 60%. The simulation of the TSWT operation rules, taking into account the impact of future evaporation and bathymetric changes, demonstrates an additional increase in reductions of water transfer of around 4%, which reveals the need to consider these effects in hydrological planning.

这项研究是在塔霍河上游流域 (UTRB) 进行的，在当地需求得到满足后，其可用水资源部分从 Entrepeñas 和 Buendía 水库转移到 Segura 河流域，使用 Tagus-Segura 输水系统 (TSWT)，这是最大的水力输送系统。西班牙的基础设施。本研究通过考虑 Entrepeñas 和 Buendía 水库未来的蒸发率和测深变化来评估气候变化对 TSWT 的影响。这项研究的结果表明，在所有气候影响情景下，降水持续减少，温度和蒸发量增加。因此，从 2070 年到 2099 年，水库的流入量将下降 19%（RCP 4.5）和 53%（RCP 8.5），这可能会使可以转移到 Segura 盆地的水量减少 60% 以上。