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Within-year and among-year variation in impacts of targeted conservation management on juvenile survival in a threatened population
Journal of Applied Ecology ( IF 5.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-19 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13998 Sarah R. Fenn 1 , Eric M. Bignal 2 , Sue Bignal 2 , Amanda E. Trask 3 , Davy I. McCracken 4 , Pat Monaghan 5 , Jane M. Reid 1, 6
中文翻译：
有针对性的保护管理对受威胁种群中幼鱼生存的影响的年内和年间变化
更新日期：2021-08-19
Journal of Applied Ecology ( IF 5.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-19 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13998 Sarah R. Fenn 1 , Eric M. Bignal 2 , Sue Bignal 2 , Amanda E. Trask 3 , Davy I. McCracken 4 , Pat Monaghan 5 , Jane M. Reid 1, 6
Affiliation
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- Overall impacts of targeted conservation interventions on population growth rate (λ) will depend on within-year and among-year variation in exposure of target individuals to interventions, and in intervention efficacy in increasing vital rates of exposed individuals. Juvenile survival is one key vital rate that commonly varies substantially within and among years, and consequently drives variation in λ. However, within-year, among-year and overall impacts of targeted interventions on population-wide survival probabilities of potentially mobile juveniles are rarely quantified, precluding full evaluation and evidence-based refinement of interventions.
- We applied multi-state mark–recapture models to 8 years of ring–resighting data from a threatened red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population to quantify within-year and among-year variation in juvenile exposure to a targeted intervention of supplementary feeding and parasite treatment, and to estimate efficacy in increasing juvenile survival probability. We then combined and up-scaled these estimated effects to evaluate the impact of the 8-year intervention on overall population-wide survival probability and resulting population size.
- High proportions of surviving juveniles (>70%) were exposed to the intervention across the annual biological cycle in all years. Exposure was associated with higher short-term survival probabilities through the full annual cycle. Consequently, management increased estimated population-wide annual juvenile survival by approximately 0.14. However, such effects were only evident in cohorts with low overall annual survival.
- Population models projected that these impacts on annual juvenile survival substantially reduced population decline, such that population size at the end of the 8-year intervention was approximately double that without management.
- Synthesis and applications. Our results show how complex patterns of within-year and among-year variation in exposure and efficacy of targeted conservation interventions can arise and scale up to affect population-level outcomes. We demonstrate overall positive effects of a joint supplementary feeding and parasite treatment intervention on the focal chough population, but also highlight potential routes to improve efficacy, for example, through more precise targeting of interventions and agricultural management actions in the context of among-year variation in environmental conditions.
中文翻译：
有针对性的保护管理对受威胁种群中幼鱼生存的影响的年内和年间变化
- 有针对性的保护干预措施对人口增长率 ( λ ) 的总体影响将取决于目标个体暴露于干预措施的年内和年间变化，以及干预措施在增加暴露个体生命率方面的有效性。幼年存活率是一个关键的生命率，通常在几年内和几年之间变化很大，因此会导致λ 的变化。然而，有针对性的干预措施对潜在流动青少年的全人群生存概率的年内、年内和总体影响很少被量化，从而妨碍了对干预措施的全面评估和循证改进。
- 我们将多状态标记重新捕获模型应用于来自受威胁的红嘴鸦雀Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax种群的8 年环重新瞄准数据，以量化幼年暴露于补充喂养和寄生虫治疗的针对性干预的年内和年内变化，并估计在增加幼鱼存活概率方面的功效。然后，我们结合并放大了这些估计的影响，以评估 8 年干预对总体人群生存概率和由此产生的人口规模的影响。
- 在所有年份的年度生物周期中，高比例的存活幼鱼 (>70%) 都受到干预。在整个年度周期中，暴露与较高的短期生存概率相关。因此，管理层将估计的全人群年幼鱼存活率提高了大约 0.14。然而，这种影响仅在总体年生存率较低的队列中才明显。
- 人口模型预测，这些对年幼年存活率的影响大大减少了人口下降，因此在 8 年干预结束时，人口规模大约是没有管理的两倍。
- 合成与应用。我们的研究结果表明，有针对性的保护干预措施的暴露和功效的年内和年间变化的复杂模式如何出现并扩大以影响人口水平的结果。我们展示了联合补充喂养和寄生虫治疗干预对焦点河豚种群的总体积极影响，但也强调了提高功效的潜在途径，例如，在年际变化的背景下，通过更精确的干预和农业管理行动的目标在环境条件下。
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