Ocean warming is altering life on Earth from individuals to ecosystems. The impacts on standing biomass and food webs functioning are less evident due to the paucity of data and difficulty to generate reliable models. We modeled the food web of a tropical near-pristine reef ecosystem and analyzed changes on living biomass across trophic levels as a response to ocean warming over the twenty-first century. By the end of the century, total standing biomass will decrease by 1%, 8% and 44% under different ocean warming scenarios (from reduced RCP 2.6 emission scenario to business-as-usual RCP 8.5 scenario). As total biomass decreases, the ecosystem structure shifts favoring invertivorous fishes, suspension feeding zooplankton, and algal turfs while corals collapse. The mean trophic transfer efficiency is expected to decrease by ~ 2% between 2012 and 2100 under the RCP 8.5, while biomass residence time (mean time that a unit of biomass remains in the ecosystem) will decrease by ~ 10%. Such food web degradation can alter the dominant biomass flow jeopardizing biomass replenishment, resulting in a less productive ecosystem with increasing dependency on pelagic energy subsidies, reducing the resilience of tropical reef ecosystems.

海洋变暖正在改变地球上的生命，从个体到生态系统。由于缺乏数据和难以生成可靠的模型，对常设生物量和食物网功能的影响不太明显。我们模拟了热带近乎原始的珊瑚礁生态系统的食物网，并分析了作为对 21 世纪海洋变暖的反应的营养级生物量变化。到本世纪末，在不同的海洋变暖情景下（从减少的 RCP 2.6 排放情景到一切照旧的 RCP 8.5 情景），总生物量将下降 1%、8% 和 44%。随着总生物量的减少，生态系统结构发生变化，有利于倒食鱼类、悬浮摄食的浮游动物和藻类草皮，而珊瑚则崩溃。根据 RCP 8.5，平均营养转移效率预计在 2012 年至 2100 年间下降约 2%，而生物量停留时间（单位生物量在生态系统中的平均停留时间）将减少约 10%。这种食物网退化会改变主要的生物量流动，危及生物量的补充，导致生态系统生产力降低，对远洋能源补贴的依赖增加，降低热带珊瑚礁生态系统的恢复能力。