Abstract

Greenhouse gases emissions modify the radiative balance of the Earth, causing changes in its climate. Climate Change is considered one of the greatest threats to economic and social stability. Aviation is responsible for around a 2.5% of greenhouse gases emissions. This contribution is steadily increasing, thus the interest of assessing the impacts that different policies might have on it. The simple feedback model proposed here was intended as a tool in order to investigate the stabilization issue. The model was based on the relationship between the number of air traffic passengers and the associated CO₂ emissions. It incorporated a representation of the feedback of the technological innovation on the emissions rate and of those of the socioeconomic response to the climatic impact on the passengers number. The model parameters were estimated using data from a variety of robust air traffic sources. However, it was found that neither of the feedback terms succeeded at stabilizing the emissions, although they might slow down their growth. In addition, there is also a nonlinear version of the model that includes a representation of the passengers perception of insecurity, similar to the one experienced in the current pandemic. This model favors the stability of both, the number of passengers and CO₂ emissions, as it would also be able to control unprecedented situations.

摘要

温室气体排放改变了地球的辐射平衡，导致其气候发生变化。气候变化被认为是对经济和社会稳定的最大威胁之一。航空造成约 2.5% 的温室气体排放。这种贡献正在稳步增加，因此有兴趣评估不同政策可能对其产生的影响。这里提出的简单反馈模型旨在作为研究稳定性问题的工具。该模型基于空中交通乘客数量与相关 CO _{2之间的关系}排放。它结合了技术创新对排放率的反馈以及对气候对乘客数量影响的社会经济反应的反馈。使用来自各种强大的空中交通来源的数据估计模型参数。然而，我们发现这两个反馈项都没有成功地稳定排放，尽管它​​们可能会减缓它们的增长。此外，该模型还有一个非线性版本，其中包括乘客对不安全感的感知，类似于当前大流行中所经历的。该模型有利于乘客数量和CO ₂排放量的稳定性，因为它还能够控制前所未有的情况。