The movement of endemic fruit flies to new habitats represents a major biological and economic threat. Anastrepha sororcula Zucchi, 1979 is widely distributed in Brazil and also in Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay. Here, we present the potential distribution of A. sororcula in endemic areas and project this model into other regions such as part of sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and Asia to show areas around the world that this species can potentially establish. We combined geographic coordinates with climate data. The models were built using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. Many mango- and guava-producing countries exhibited climatic suitability for A. sororcula in the regions studied including the nine largest world producers: India, Brazil, Malawi, Kenya, Haiti, Cuba, Colombia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Many of these countries showed ideal host plant availability and climatic conditions for the entry and establishment of A. sororcula. This study is a pioneer in the identification of representative areas in the world with climatic suitability for A. sororcula, which shows the importance of predicting areas at risk of invasion to monitor the movement and establishment of fruit fly species in new regions, which is fundamental to area-wide integrated pest management programs.

地方性果蝇迁移到新的栖息地是一种主要的生物和经济威胁。Anastrepha sororcula Zucchi, 1979 广泛分布于巴西以及哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和巴拉圭。在这里，我们展示了A. sororcula在流行地区的潜在分布，并将此模型投射到其他地区，例如撒哈拉以南非洲、中美洲和亚洲的部分地区，以展示该物种可能在世界各地建立的地区。我们将地理坐标与气候数据相结合。这些模型是使用最大熵 (MaxEnt) 算法构建的。许多芒果和番石榴生产国对A. soorrcula表现出气候适宜性研究的地区包括世界九大生产国：印度、巴西、马拉维、肯尼亚、海地、古巴、哥伦比亚、马达加斯加和刚果民主共和国。这些国家中的许多国家都显示出理想的寄主植物可用性和适合A. sororcula进入和建立的气候条件。这项研究是确定世界上适合A. sororcula的代表性地区的先驱，这表明预测有入侵风险的地区对于监测新地区果蝇物种的运动和建立的重要性，这是基础到区域范围内的综合虫害管理计划。