Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.

在雄心勃勃的气候和能源政策的推动下，生物能源的使用不断增加，导致国际生物能源贸易激增。同时，很明显，生物能源供应链的每个节点，从能源作物的种植到电力和热力的生产，都容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，生物能源供应链的气候变化评估既没有考虑到生物能源市场的全球性，也没有考虑到生物能源供应链所在的不同子系统之间和内部的复杂性和动态互连性，从而忽略了潜在的复合和级联影响。气候变化。在本文中，利用系统思维来开发一个分析框架来解决这一差距，并在因果循环图的帮助下，针对从美国向欧盟进口木颗粒的案例研究确定了气候变化的级联影响。研究结果说明了木屑颗粒供应系统的复杂性和互连性如何使供应链容易受到环境、社会、政治和经济领域产生的各种级联气候变化影响，并强调使用基于系统的分析工具来研究这种复杂的价值和动态系统。