The predictions for Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) have been evaluated from official forecasts, global models, regional models and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) at lead times of 1–5 days. Track errors from most deterministic forecasts are smaller than their annual mean errors in 2019. Compared to the propagation speed, the propagation direction of Lekima (2019) was much easier to determine for the official agency and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP-GEFS), Japan Meteorological Agency Global Ensemble Prediction System (JMA-GEPS) and Meteorological Service of Canada Ensemble System (MSC-CENS) are underdispersed, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute Typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System (STI-TEDAPS) is overdispersed, while the ensemble prediction system from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows adequate dispersion at all lead times. Most deterministic forecasting methods underestimated the intensity of Lekima (2019), especially for the rapid intensification period after Lekima (2019) entered the East China Sea. All of the deterministic forecasts performed well at predicting the first landfall point at Wenling, Zhejiang Province with a lead time of 24 and 48 h.

超级台风利奇马 (2019) 的预测已经根据官方预测、全球模型、区域模型和集合预测系统 (EPS) 在 1-5 天的提前期进行了评估。大多数确定性预测的轨道误差都小于 2019 年的年平均误差。 与传播速度相比，Lekima (2019) 的传播方向对于官方机构和数值天气预报 (NWP) 模型来说更容易确定。国家环境预报中心全球集合预报系统（NCEP-GEFS）、日本气象厅全球集合预报系统（JMA-GEPS）和加拿大集合系统气象局（MSC-CENS）分散不足，上海台风研究所台风集合数据同化和预测系统（STI-TEDAPS）过度分散，而来自欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的集合预测系统在所有提前期都显示出足够的分散性。大多数确定性预报方法都低估了利奇马（2019）的强度，尤其是利奇马（2019）进入东海后的快速增强期。所有确定性预报均在预测浙江省温岭首次登陆点方面表现良好，提前时间分别为 24 小时和 48 小时。