The risk of developing a major non-communicable disease is critically affected by lifestyle choices. This study examined the consequences of factors that might predict a change in the self-rated health of older adults and aimed to assess their monetary costs. In particular, two predisposing risk factor moderators were studied: high blood pressure and high cholesterol. The effects of these on two serious adverse cardiovascular events – heart attack and stroke – were estimated. Using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) carried out in 2014, a two-stage procedure was applied as well as pairwise comparison. The results revealed the significant role of socioeconomic status in health outcomes. Behavioural risk factors were found to be significant predictors for heart attack and stroke. The findings support the claim that variables such as age, wealth and behavioural risk factors are additional predictors of a change in these two diseases. The monetary consequences can reach up to 12.8 thousand Euros for older adults per unit of predisposing risk factor. Since national health budgets are limited, health policies might be prioritized.

发生重大非传染性疾病的风险受到生活方式选择的严重影响。这项研究检查了可能预测老年人自评健康变化的因素的后果，并旨在评估他们的金钱成本。特别是，研究了两种诱发风险因素调节因子：高血压和高胆固醇。估计了这些对两种严重的心血管不良事件——心脏病发作和中风——的影响。使用 2014 年进行的欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查 (SHARE) 的数据，应用了两阶段程序以及成对比较。结果揭示了社会经济地位在健康结果中的重要作用。行为危险因素被发现是心脏病发作和中风的重要预测因素。研究结果支持这样一种说法，即年龄、财富和行为风险因素等变量是这两种疾病变化的额外预测因素。对于每单位诱发风险因素，老年人的金钱后果可能高达 12,800 欧元。由于国家卫生预算有限，可能会优先考虑卫生政策。