Abstract: We investigate the relationship between energy commodities bases, inventory and financial stress from 1994 to 2018. We find that, from the 1998 Asian crisis the effect of financial stress on energy commodities bases gradually increased and from the 2008 crisis became positive, while the effect of inventory showed a gradual decline over time. The reactions of bases to changes in financial stress is nonlinear, as they are higher in the high financial stress periods. This is more profound in crude oil market than heating oil and natural gas. Moreover, the reactions of bases to the changes in inventory is nonlinear, as the reactions are lower when the inventory level is high confirming the theory of storage. We suggest that, in energy market, changes of inventory do not fully explain the variation of energy commodities bases, as the connection between commodity and financial markets increased during the recent years.

中文翻译：

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能源市场的财务压力和基础

摘要：我们考察了 1994 年至 2018 年能源大宗商品基地、库存与金融压力之间的关系。我们发现，从 1998 年亚洲危机开始，金融压力对能源大宗商品基地的影响逐渐增强，从 2008 年危机开始转为正，而库存的影响随着时间的推移呈现逐渐下降的趋势。基础对金融压力变化的反应是非线性的，因为它们在高金融压力时期更高。这在原油市场上比取暖油和天然气更为深刻。此外，碱对库存变化的反应是非线性的，因为当库存水平高时反应较低，这证实了存储理论。我们认为，在能源市场，库存的变化不能完全解释能源商品基数的变化，