Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.

传粉者减少已引起全球关注，并且正在通过国家传粉者战略和行动计划做出重大努力来应对。这些应对政策要求弄清传粉媒介减少的原因及其对世界不同地区社会产生的风险。使用正式的专家启发过程，我们评估了传粉媒介减少的八个驱动因素的相对区域和全球重要性以及对人类福祉的十个随之而来的风险。我们的结果表明，全球政策应对措施应侧重于减轻土地覆盖和配置、土地管理和杀虫剂变化带来的压力，因为这些在大多数地区被认为是非常重要的驱动因素。我们量化了驱动因素的重要性和传粉媒介减少带来的风险在不同地区之间的差异。例如，失去受管理的授粉媒介仅被认为是北美人的严重风险，而依赖传粉媒介的作物产量不稳定在四个地区被归类为严重或高风险，但在欧洲和北美仅为中等风险。总体而言，全球南方国家的感知风险要高得多。尽管对传粉者减少进行了广泛研究，但我们的分析揭示了这对人类社会意味着什么的科学不确定性。