Purpose

While United States is among countries with the world’s highest coronavirus infections, its approaches and policies to reopen the economy vary by state. A lack of objective criteria and monitoring toward satisfying the criteria can lead to another COVID-19 outbreak and business closures. Considering the pressing need to return to normalcy without a rebound of COVID-19 infections and deaths, an index that provides a data-driven and objective insight is urgently needed. Hence, a method was devised to assess the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the degree of progress any state has made in containing the spread of COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

Using measures such as the weekly averages of daily new deaths, ICU bed occupancy rates, positive cases and test positivity rates, two indexes were developed: COVID-19 reopening readiness and severity.

Findings

A clear difference in the pandemic severity trends can be observed between states, which is possibly due to the disparity in the state’s response to coronavirus. A sharp upward trend in index values requires caution prior to moving to the next phase of reopening.

Originality/value

The composite indexes advanced in this study will provide a universal, standardized and unbiased view of each state’s readiness to reopen and allow comparisons between states. This in turn can help governments and health-care agencies take counter measures if needed as to the anticipated demand for future health-care services and minimize adverse consequences of opening.

中文翻译：

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衡量重新开放准备情况：美国各州的通用 COVID-19 指数

目的

尽管美国是世界上冠状病毒感染率最高的国家之一，但其重新开放经济的方法和政策因州而异。缺乏客观标准和满足标准的监控可能导致 COVID-19 再次爆发和企业倒闭。考虑到迫切需要在 COVID-19 感染和死亡不反弹的情况下恢复正常，迫切需要一个提供数据驱动和客观洞察力的指数。因此，设计了一种方法来评估 COVID-19 大流行的严重性，并确定任何州在遏制 COVID-19 传播方面取得的进展程度。

设计/方法/方法

使用每周平均每日新增死亡人数、ICU 床位占用率、阳性病例和检测阳性率等指标，制定了两个指标：COVID-19 重新开放准备情况和严重程度。

发现

可以观察到各州之间大流行严重程度趋势的明显差异，这可能是由于各州对冠状病毒的反应存在差异。在进入下一阶段重新开放之前，指数值的急剧上升趋势需要谨慎。

原创性/价值

本研究中提出的综合指数将为每个州重新开放的准备情况提供一个普遍、标准化和公正的观点，并允许在各州之间进行比较。这反过来又可以帮助政府和医疗机构在需要时针对未来医疗服务的预期需求采取应对措施，并尽量减少开放的不利后果。