From an economic perspective, marriage and long-term partnership can be seen as a risk-pooling device. This informal insurance contract is, however, not fully enforceable. Each partner is free to leave when his or her support is needed in case of an adverse life event. An adverse health shock is a prominent example for such events. Since relationship breakdown itself is an extremely stressful experience, partnership may backfire as informal insurance against health risks, if health shocks increase the likelihood of relationship breakdown. We address this question empirically, using survey data from Germany. Results from various matching estimators indicate that adverse shocks to mental health substantially increase the probability of a couple splitting up over the following two years. In contrast, there is little effect of a sharp decrease in physical health on relationship stability. If at all, physical health shocks that hit both partners simultaneously stabilize a relationship.

从经济角度来看，婚姻和长期伴侣关系可以被视为一种风险分担工具。然而，这种非正式的保险合同并不能完全执行。如果发生不利的生活事件，每个伴侣都可以在需要他或她的支持时自由离开。不利的健康冲击是此类事件的一个突出例子。由于关系破裂本身是一种压力极大的经历，如果健康冲击增加了关系破裂的可能性，伙伴关系作为针对健康风险的非正式保险可能会适得其反。我们使用德国的调查数据凭经验解决这个问题。各种匹配估计的结果表明，对心理健康的不利冲击会大大增加一对夫妇在接下来的两年内分手的可能性。相比之下，身体健康急剧下降对关系稳定性几乎没有影响。如果有的话，打击双方的身体健康冲击同时稳定了关系。