Fixed-term labour contracts (FTCs) may be an important tool to promote employment, particularly in recessions and when dismissal costs of open-ended contracts are high. In this case, making FTCs more flexible during downturns may be useful. We assess this idea by examining the effects of a law that increased the maximum duration of FTCs in Portugal during the 2012 recession. Our analysis is based on regression-discontinuity and difference-in-differences methods and employer-employee panel data. We find a considerable take up of this measure, as conversions to permanent contracts drop by 20%. Worker churning is reduced, as mobility of eligible fixed-term workers to other firms drops by 10%. Employment also increases but only for younger workers.

固定期限劳动合同 (FTC) 可能是促进就业的重要工具，尤其是在经济衰退和无固定期限合同的解雇成本很高的情况下。在这种情况下，让 FTC 在经济低迷时期更加灵活可能会有用。我们通过检查一项在 2012 年经济衰退期间延长葡萄牙 FTC 最长期限的法律的影响来评估这一想法。我们的分析基于回归不连续性和差异中的差异方法以及雇主-雇员面板数据。我们发现这一措施被大量采用，因为转换为永久合同的数量下降了 20%。员工流失减少，因为符合条件的定期员工到其他公司的流动性下降了 10%。就业也在增加，但仅限于年轻工人。