ABSTRACT

Ireland has a renewable heat sectoral target of 600,000 heat pumps by 2030 with currently just 44,000 installed. Such a high heat pump target will have a significant effect on electricity demand and on the management and operation of the electricity grid. Many studies rely on synthetic data to estimate the impact of the adoption of low carbon technologies. This paper explores residential electricity demand using an innovative dataset from a field trial of deeply retrofitted homes heated by air source heat pumps. We estimate the after diversity maximum demand during a period of extreme weather, comparing it to a typical winter day. We assess which statistical distributions best model the electricity demand per home heated by an air source heat pump. The after diversity max demand is 3.84 kW compared to 2.33 kW, while a Gamma distribution best models average coincident electricity demand for the homes.

摘要

爱尔兰的可再生热能行业目标是到 2030 年安装 600,000 台热泵，目前仅安装 44,000 台。如此高的热泵目标将对电力需求以及电网的管理和运营产生重大影响。许多研究依靠综合数据来估计采用低碳技术的影响。本文使用来自由空气源热泵供暖的深度改造房屋的现场试验的创新数据集探索住宅电力需求。我们估计极端天气期间的多样性最大需求，将其与典型的冬日进行比较。我们评估哪种统计分布最能模拟由空气源热泵供暖的每个家庭的电力需求。后分集最大需求为 3.84 kW，而 2.33 kW，