Using monthly data of 79 Russian regions from 2003 to 2017, we study the long-run relationship of the retail gasoline prices with the crude oil price and the nominal exchange rate. We find that models that were successfully applied to deal with asymmetries in other countries are not suitable for Russia without taking structural breaks into account. Once breaks are allowed, we find that there is no asymmetry in the long-run elasticities between the gasoline prices and the crude oil price, and no significant hysteresis. However, there is an asymmetric relation between the gasoline price and the exchange rate that has decreased over time. These results also hold after several robustness checks. The evidence reported in this work shows that the effects of the exchange rate on gasoline prices are much more difficult to control than the oil price, and they require a larger set of policy measures: the recent development of a plan to decrease the importance of hydrocarbons exports by producing clean hydrogen using electrolysis and pyrolysis and the potential future export of electricity generated using nuclear power and onshore wind farms may help to diversify the local economy and to shield it from new sanctions.

我们利用俄罗斯 79 个地区 2003 年至 2017 年的月度数据，研究了汽油零售价格与原油价格和名义汇率的长期关系。我们发现，在不考虑结构性断裂的情况下，成功应用于其他国家处理不对称问题的模型不适用于俄罗斯。一旦允许突破，我们发现汽油价格和原油价格之间的长期弹性不存在不对称性，也没有显着的滞后。然而，汽油价格与汇率之间存在不对称关系，并且随着时间的推移而下降。这些结果在几次稳健性检查后也成立。这项工作报告的证据表明，汇率对汽油价格的影响比石油价格更难控制，