Abstract:

Strategic analysts and planners need distinct capabilities to include extensive disciplinary expertise and a broad understanding of the world and methodological expertise for dealing with innovation, discovery, and surprise. Specifically, the analyst needs to evaluate the robustness of a policy to the uncertainty of an assessment. The analyst must have both topical expertise in the disciplines underlying the analysis, as well as decision-theoretic expertise in managing uncertainty. This is demonstrated by applying info-gap decision theory and the concept of robust-satisficing to the analysis of policy in response to al-Qaeda prior to 11 September 2001, which illustrates the combination of topical and decision-theoretic expertise.

摘要：

战略分析师和规划师需要独特的能力，包括广泛的学科专业知识和对世界的广泛理解以及处理创新、发现和惊喜的方法论专业知识。具体而言，分析师需要评估政策对评估不确定性的稳健性。分析师必须同时具备分析所依据学科的主题专业知识，以及管理不确定性的决策理论专业知识。这通过将信息差距决策理论和稳健满足的概念应用于 2001 年 9 月 11 日之前响应基地组织的政策分析来证明，这说明了主题和决策理论专业知识的结合。