Implications of climate change for railway infrastructure,WIREs Climate Change

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Implications of climate change for railway infrastructure
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-13 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.728
Erika J. Palin ₁ , Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic _{2,

3} , Kenneth Gavin ₄ , Andrew Quinn ₅

Affiliation

Weather phenomena can result in severe impacts on railway infrastructure. In future, projected changes to the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events could change weather–infrastructure risk profiles. Infrastructure owners and operators need to manage current weather impacts and put in place adequate plans to anticipate and adapt to changes in future weather risks, or mitigate the impacts arising from those risks. The assessment of the risk posed to railway infrastructure from current and future weather is dependent on a good understanding of the constituent components of risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A good understanding of the baseline and projected future risk is needed in order to understand the potential benefits of various climate change adaptation actions. Traditional risk assessment methods need some modification in order to be applied to climate change timescales, for which decisions need to be made under deep uncertainty. This review paper highlights some key challenges for assessing the risk, including: managing uncertainties; understanding weather-impact relationships and how they could change with climate change; assessing the costs of current and future weather impacts and the potential cost versus benefit of adaptation; and understanding practices and tools for adapting railway infrastructure. The literature reveals examples of progress and good practice in all these areas, providing scope for effective knowledge-sharing—across the railway infrastructure and other sectors—in support of infrastructure resilience and adaptation.

中文翻译：

气候变化对铁路基础设施的影响

天气现象会对铁路基础设施造成严重影响。未来，极端天气事件频率和/或强度的预测变化可能会改变天气-基础设施风险状况。基础设施所有者和运营商需要管理当前的天气影响，并制定适当的计划来预测和适应未来天气风险的变化，或减轻这些风险造成的影响。对当前和未来天气对铁路基础设施构成的风险的评估取决于对风险组成部分的充分理解：危害、脆弱性和暴露。. 需要很好地了解基线和预计的未来风险，以便了解各种气候变化适应行动的潜在收益。传统的风险评估方法需要进行一些修改才能应用于气候变化时间尺度，因此需要在高度不确定的情况下做出决策。这篇评论文章强调了评估风险的一些关键挑战，包括：管理不确定性；了解天气影响关系以及它们如何随气候变化而变化；评估当前和未来天气影响的成本以及适应的潜在成本与收益；了解适应铁路基础设施的实践和工具。文献揭示了所有这些领域的进步和良好做法的例子，

更新日期：2021-08-13

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