This paper analyzes the social and environmental aspects of energy and large-scale projects through the use of Bayesian Networks. To do this, a database was created that includes conflict causes related to 267 projects in Mexico with 12 well-defined and orthogonal social and environmental conflict causes. These are lack of information and participation, fear of change to local communities, health and environmental damage, reduction of primary sector activities, proximity to cultural landmarks, employee dissatisfaction, political interests, violence to the community, water use, non-compliance of agreements, land use disputes, and others not defined. The database was the input for two Bayesian Networks, network “A” estimates the likelihood of approval or risk of suspension of a project because of the conflict causes, with an overall accuracy of 80.3%. The network “B” estimates the costs of conflictive situations and how likely they can be resolved by adding benefits. A sensitivity analysis found that five conflict causes can reduce the probability of a project's success by 10–39%. Finally, policy implications were identified, resulting in four recommendations for implementation in national regulations. The tools developed here enable measurement of the benefits of energy projects, provide policymakers tools to improve public decisions, and help avoid conflicts.

本文通过使用贝叶斯网络分析能源和大型项目的社会和环境方面。为此，创建了一个数据库，其中包含与墨西哥 267 个项目相关的冲突原因，其中包含 12 个明确且正交的社会和环境冲突原因。这些是缺乏信息和参与、害怕改变当地社区、健康和环境破坏、初级部门活动减少、靠近文化地标、员工不满、政治利益、对社区的暴力、用水、不遵守协议、土地使用纠纷等未定义。该数据库是两个贝叶斯网络的输入，网络“A”估计了项目因冲突原因而被批准或暂停的风险，总体准确度为 80。3%。网络“B”估计冲突情况的成本以及通过增加收益解决冲突的可能性。一项敏感性分析发现，五个冲突原因可以将项目成功的可能性降低 10-39%。最后，确定了政策影响，提出了四项在国家法规中实施的建议。这里开发的工具能够衡量能源项目的收益，为政策制定者提供改进公共决策的工具，并帮助避免冲突。产生了四项在国家法规中实施的建议。这里开发的工具能够衡量能源项目的收益，为政策制定者提供改进公共决策的工具，并帮助避免冲突。产生了四项在国家法规中实施的建议。这里开发的工具能够衡量能源项目的收益，为政策制定者提供改进公共决策的工具，并帮助避免冲突。