The international dry bulk shipping market is a complex and changeable shipping market, which is affected by the world's external economic and trade environment. It is difficult for the operation and decision-making of dry bulk transportation companies and other market practitioners. Based on the freight indexes of shipping sub-markets including the Panamax and the handy-size carrier, this paper uses the Rescaled Range Analysis (R/S) and the modified R/S analysis methods to theoretically and empirically investigate the long memory of the two shipping sub-markets. In addition, the V test method is used to calculate the number of non-periodic days in the two sub-markets. The research results show that both shipping sub-markets have long memory, with the non-periodic cycle length of 426 days for Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) and of 206 days for Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI). The insights into the characteristics of the international dry bulk shipping market and the long-memory law of the dry bulk shipping price index could benefit the decision-making and risk avoidance for dry bulk shipping practitioners.

国际干散货航运市场是一个复杂多变的航运市场，受世界外部经贸环境的影响较大。干散货运输企业等市场从业者的经营决策难度较大。本文以巴拿马型和灵便型承运人等航运子市场的运价指数为基础，采用重标度范围分析（R/S）和修正的 R/S 分析方法，从理论上和实证上研究了船舶的长记忆性。两个航运子市场。此外，采用V检验法计算两个子市场的非周期天数。研究结果表明，两个航运子市场都有长记忆，波罗的海巴拿马型指数 (BPI) 的非周期性周期长度为 426 天，波罗的海灵便型指数 (BHSI) 的非周期性周期长度为 206 天。洞悉国际干散货航运市场的特点和干散货航运价格指数的长记忆规律，有利于干散货航运从业者的决策和风险规避。