AbstractMany information and communications technology (ICT) services have become commonplace worldwide and are certain to continue to spread faster than before, particularly along with the commercialization of 5G and movement restrictions in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Although there is a concern that ICT equipment usage may increase power consumption and emit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ICT has also been contributing to reducing GHG emissions through improved productivity and reduced mobility. This research targeted the main ICT services used in Japan and adopted a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model to quantitatively analyze future impacts on economic growth and GHG emission reduction until 2030 by using these ICTs, while considering both the increase in power consumption of ICT itself and the reduction in environmental load in other sectors. The results showed that the spread of ICT services, especially some artificial intelligence-based services, can improve productivity in most sectors through labor-saving and contribute to improving overall gross domestic product (GDP). Additionally, increased efficiency of logistics and manufacturing can greatly reduce the input of oil and coal products and so greatly contribute to GHG emission reduction. In 2030, compared with the baseline scenario in which all technology levels are fixed at current levels, at least 1% additional GDP growth and 4% GHG emission reduction can be expected by the targeted introduction of ICT in the ICT accelerated scenario in which the technology level of ICT accelerates. This also means ICT can potentially decouple the economy from the environment.

中文翻译：

---

ICT 如何为未来实现可持续社会做出贡献：CGE 方法

摘要许多信息和通信技术 (ICT) 服务已在全球范围内变得司空见惯，并且肯定会继续以比以前更快的速度传播，特别是随着 5G 的商业化和针对 COVID-19 大流行的行动限制。尽管人们担心 ICT 设备的使用可能会增加功耗和温室气体 (GHG) 排放，但 ICT 也通过提高生产力和减少流动性为减少温室气体排放做出了贡献。本研究针对日本主要使用的ICT服务，采用动态国家可计算一般均衡模型，定量分析这些ICT服务到2030年对未来经济增长和温室气体减排的影响，同时考虑ICT本身功耗的增加和其他部门环境负荷的减少。结果表明，ICT服务，特别是一些基于人工智能的服务的普及，可以通过节省劳动力来提高大多数部门的生产率，并有助于提高总体国内生产总值（GDP）。此外，物流和制造效率的提高可以大大减少石油和煤炭产品的投入，从而大大有助于温室气体减排。到2030年，与所有技术水平固定在现有水平的基准情景相比，在ICT加速情景中，通过有针对性地引入ICT，预计GDP将至少增长1%，温室气体排放量将减少4%。信息通信技术水平加快。这也意味着信息通信技术有可能使经济与环境脱钩。