Climate change is expected to alter biological phenomena across the world, including the numbers and distributions of species and the timing of significant events in their life cycles such as reproduction and migration. Understanding how species will respond to future climate change is essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Accordingly, in this research, we advanced the understanding of avian ecology by developing a framework for how climate change affects birds. In the first step, we evaluated the vulnerability of 537 species to climate change based on the distribution, physiology, phenology, biotic interactions, and protection status of the species in Iran. Then, we used MaxEnt models to predict the potential changes in the ranges of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years. In the third step, hotspots for birds under current and future conditions were identified using an ensemble forecasting framework and the potential changes in the hotspots in the next 70 years were predicted. Results of the climate vulnerability evaluation showed that around 40% of bird species in Iran are highly vulnerable. Our results showed that small parts of suitable habitats are currently located within protected areas. Moreover, the results showed that even smaller portions of suitable habitats will fall within protected areas in the future. The reduced coverage in the future will diminish the benefits of protected areas for the species and make the species more vulnerable to climate change. These results can be used by wildlife managers to identify areas with protection priority, and for prediction of corridors, core habitats, and new areas to establish protected areas in the future.

预计气候变化将改变世界各地的生物现象，包括物种的数量和分布以及生命周期中重大事件的发生时间，如繁殖和迁徙。了解物种将如何应对未来的气候变化对于有效的野生动物管理和保护至关重要。因此，在这项研究中，我们通过开发气候变化如何影响鸟类的框架来加深对鸟类生态学的理解。第一步，我们根据伊朗物种的分布、生理、物候、生物相互作用和保护状况，评估了 537 个物种对气候变化的脆弱性。然后，我们使用 MaxEnt 模型来预测未来 70 年气候变化导致脆弱物种范围的潜在变化。在第三步，使用集合预测框架确定了当前和未来条件下鸟类的热点，并预测了未来 70 年热点的潜在变化。气候脆弱性评估结果显示，伊朗约 40% 的鸟类物种高度脆弱。我们的结果表明，目前有一小部分合适的栖息地位于保护区内。此外，结果表明，未来甚至更小部分的合适栖息地将落入保护区内。未来减少的覆盖范围将减少保护区对物种的好处，并使物种更容易受到气候变化的影响。野生动物管理者可以使用这些结果来确定优先保护的区域，并预测走廊、核心栖息地、