Abstract

The paper proposes a mathematical model to forecast the time needed during a continuous improvement (CI) project. To do this, the authors adapted the famous Lotka–Volterra model to the CI methodology. Also, the authors examined a Montreal company’s database to simulate the CI’s necessary time in the real world. Firstly, the model simulates a total of CI hours for the employees and the respective quantity of problems at the end of the project. And after, the authors compared the simulation results with the project real results. This work introduces a new model to forecast the CI’s necessary time and discuss an innovative way to implement a CI project. This work also considers the advantages and difficulties of achieving a CI project based on a simulation. One of the work’s main result is the discussion of the total CI hours performed by the employees: 130% of the simulation proposition. This quantity of hours leads to half of the problems estimated by the model: 42%. The normalized results showed a difference of 1.03% between the simulation and the observations in the real world.

摘要

本文提出了一个数学模型来预测持续改进 (CI) 项目所需的时间。为此，作者将著名的 Lotka–Volterra 模型应用于 CI 方法。此外，作者还检查了一家蒙特利尔公司的数据库，以模拟 CI 在现实世界中的必要时间。首先，该模型模拟了员工的 CI 总小时数以及项目结束时各自的问题数量。之后，作者将仿真结果与项目实际结果进行了比较。这项工作引入了一种新模型来预测 CI 的必要时间，并讨论了实施 CI 项目的创新方法。这项工作还考虑了基于模拟实现 CI 项目的优势和困难。这项工作的主要成果之一是对员工执行的 CI 总时数的讨论：模拟命题的 130%。这个小时数导致了模型估计的一半问题：42%。归一化结果显示模拟与现实世界中的观察结果之间存在 1.03% 的差异。