We present a numerical framework for estimating the effective reproduction number of infectious diseases from compartmental epidemic models. The idea is to augment the reproduction number as an extended state variable in the model. We assume the reproduction number is a piece-wise constant function with jumps every new data are recorded. The numerical framework is written in discrete-time and is combined with estimation algorithms. Simulation results using epidemiological data from Denmark and Germany show our approach is comparable with existing method such as methods based on Bayesian statistical inference.

中文翻译：

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从分区流行模型估计传染病有效繁殖数的数值框架

我们提出了一个数值框架，用于从区室流行病模型中估计传染病的有效繁殖数。这个想法是将再生数作为模型中的扩展状态变量来增加。我们假设再现数是一个分段常数函数，每记录一个新数据都会跳转。数值框架是用离散时间编写的，并与估计算法相结合。使用丹麦和德国流行病学数据的模拟结果表明，我们的方法与现有方法（例如基于贝叶斯统计推断的方法）具有可比性。