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RISK AWARENESS TO EPIDEMIC INFORMATION AND SELF-RESTRICTED TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ON CONTAGION
Advances in Complex Systems ( IF 0.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-11 , DOI: 10.1142/s0219525921500016
WEN-JUAN XU 1 , CHEN-YANG ZHONG 2 , HUI-FEN YE 3 , RONG-DA CHEN 4 , TIAN QIU 5 , FEI REN 6 , LI-XIN ZHONG 4
Affiliation  

By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect on the spread of the epidemic. People’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information leads to their risk aversion behavior and the spread of the epidemic is suppressed. In the population with only global person-to-person movement, timely and accurate epidemic information helps an individual cut off the connections with the infected in time and the epidemic is brought under control in no time. A delay in the epidemic information leads to an individual’s misjudgment of who has been infected and who has not, which in turn leads to rapid progress and a higher peak of the epidemic. In the population with coexistence of local and global movement, timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information play an important role in curbing the epidemic. A theoretical analysis indicates that people’s misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people’s self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability. A functional relation between the ratio of infected individuals and the susceptible-infected encounter probability has been found.

中文翻译:

对流行病信息的风险意识和对传染病的自我限制旅行行为

通过将延迟的流行病信​​息和自我限制的旅行行为纳入SIS模型,我们研究了及时准确的流行病信​​息与人们对流行病信息的敏感性对传染性的耦合效应。在只有局部随机流动的人群中,疫情信息是否延迟对疫情的传播没有影响。人们对疫情信息的高度敏感导致他们的风险规避行为,疫情的蔓延受到抑制。在只有全球人传人的人群中,及时准确的疫情信息可以帮助个人及时切断与感染者的联系,及时控制疫情。疫情信息的延迟会导致个人对谁感染谁未感染的误判,进而导致疫情快速进展和更高的高峰。在局部和全球流动并存的人群中,及时准确的疫情信息和人们对疫情信息的高度敏感性对遏制疫情发挥着重要作用。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。这反过来又导致了疫情的快速进展和更高的高峰。在局部和全球流动并存的人群中,及时准确的疫情信息和人们对疫情信息的高度敏感性对遏制疫情发挥着重要作用。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。这反过来又导致了疫情的快速进展和更高的高峰。在局部和全球流动并存的人群中,及时准确的疫情信息和人们对疫情信息的高度敏感性对遏制疫情发挥着重要作用。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。及时准确的疫情信息和民众对疫情信息的高度敏感性,对遏制疫情发挥了重要作用。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。及时准确的疫情信息和民众对疫情信息的高度敏感性,对遏制疫情发挥了重要作用。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。理论分析表明,人们因疫情信息延迟导致的误判导致易感者与感染者的相遇概率较高,而人们自我限制的出行行为有助于降低这种相遇概率。已发现受感染个体的比率与易感感染的遭遇概率之间存在函数关系。
更新日期:2021-08-11
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