What can explain the large changes in aggregate demand that occur in the absence of any seemingly corresponding shock to the underlying state variables of the economy? We show that macroeconomic volatility can arise from dispersions of beliefs among agents. Such dispersion gives rise to bets and other trades in speculative assets. Such trades give rise to pseudo-wealth, wealth that individuals believe they have on the basis of expectations of returns on these gambles. In the aggregate, when there are enough opportunities for trade and large enough dispersions in beliefs, this perceived wealth may be dangerously untethered to either market wealth or the real wealth of the economy. Given the increased dispersion in beliefs that naturally arises from unprecedented shocks, the theory of pseudo-wealth provides new understandings of both the origins of unanticipated fluctuations and their magnitude, markedly different from prevailing theories grounded in common knowledge and beliefs among individuals. This paper explores the empirical and theoretical underpinnings of pseudo-wealth, links the concept to observed macroeconomic fluctuations, and lays out a research agenda that might help us better understand the role of pseudo-wealth and the circumstances in which it is pronounced.

中文翻译：

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经济波动与伪财富

在没有对经济的基本状态变量产生任何看似相应的冲击的情况下，总需求的巨大变化能够解释什么？我们表明，宏观经济波动可能源于代理人之间的信念分散。这种分散导致了投机资产的赌注和其他交易。这种交易会产生伪财富，即个人根据对这些赌博的回报预期而相信自己拥有的财富。总的来说，当有足够的贸易机会和足够大的信仰分散时，这种感知财富可能会危险地与市场财富或经济的实际财富无关。鉴于史无前例的冲击自然会导致信念的日益分散，伪财富理论为意外波动的起源及其幅度提供了新的理解，与基于个人常识和信念的流行理论明显不同。本文探讨了伪财富的经验和理论基础，将这一概念与观察到的宏观经济波动联系起来，并提出了一个研究议程，可能有助于我们更好地理解伪财富的作用及其出现的环境。