This article analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (i) The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (ii) there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors; and (iii) there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath, inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints. Because of macroeconomic externalities, precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn, and even sectors where COVID-19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment. Multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly. The article describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior, leading to reduced unemployment. Greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment.

中文翻译：

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大流行的经济危机、预防行为和流动性约束：具有随机性的动态不平衡模型的应用†

本文分析了大流行的经济影响，提供了对替代政策后果的见解。我们的框架侧重于三个关键特征： (i) 冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 是一种深度和持续时间未知的部门冲击，对某些部门和技术的影响比其他部门和技术更大；(ii) 跨部门转移资源存在限制；(iii) 这种疾病及其经济后果存在高度不确定性，导致一些代理人采取高度预防性行为，并导致其他代理人面临更严重的信贷限制。由于宏观经济的外部性，预防性行为加剧了经济下滑，甚至 COVID-19 不直接影响消费或生产的行业也可能面临失业。与不同政府支出计划相关的乘数明显不同。这篇文章描述了可以减轻预防行为，从而降低失业率的政策。更大的工资灵活性可能导致失业增加。