ABSTRACT

Although marketers are increasingly asked to manage brands for the long term, it is difficult to do so when no clear picture exists of long-term brand buying. This study reports cumulative behavioural loyalty outcomes for 200 UK consumer-goods brands when observed in a five-year household panel of continuous reporters. We examine these brands in intervals from one to five years against NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model projections. Stationary brands attract over twice as many buyers in five years as they do in one. Of these buyers, 80% purchase the brand at a rate of once a year or less, yet contribute 40% to total sales, a Pareto ratio of just 60:20. For managers, this light buying is broadly predictable from NBD fittings to annual data, and implies a renewed emphasis on nudging the brand buying propensities of the whole market.

摘要

尽管越来越多的营销人员被要求对品牌进行长期管理，但在没有明确的长期品牌购买图景的情况下很难做到这一点。这项研究报告了 200 个英国消费品品牌的累积行为忠诚度结果，这些结果是在一个为期五年的家庭连续记者小组中观察到的。我们根据 NBD（负二项分布）模型预测每隔一到五年检查这些品牌。固定品牌在五年内吸引的买家数量是一年内的两倍多。在这些买家中，80% 的人每年购买该品牌一次或更少，但占总销售额的 40%，帕累托比率仅为 60:20。对于经理人来说，从 NBD 配件到年度数据，这种轻度购买是可以广泛预测的，这意味着重新强调推动整个市场的品牌购买倾向。