Urban development is dominated by various factors ranging from natural and social factors to accessibility to urban infrastructures. Urbanization in an unfavorable location in terms of the above factors can create difficulties with connecting to the city center, adjacent urban areas, and wastage of land resources. In the context of Can Tho city, a newly developing city, its urban expansion process and factors affecting urbanized possibility were explored by applying multiple logistic regression (MLR) on Landsat imagery and accessible geospatial data sources. The analyses confirmed a significant urban expansion in the entire city between 2003 and 2017, mostly in center districts and along Hau river. The primary dynamics of urban expansion were explained by an efficient MLR (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic – AUROC = 0.803), based on six factors related to accessibility to transportation, developed urban areas, industrial zone, elevation, soil type, and population. A simulation of urbanization probability revealed that most remote areas with low accessibility to urban infrastructures are difficult to urbanize with a probability of less than 40%. In contrast, the high potentially urbanized regions expanded the already built-up areas in riverside districts. Our findings facilitate the understanding of urbanized driven factors in the newly developing delta cities for long-term planning when urbanization remains under control.

城市发展受到各种因素的支配，从自然和社会因素到城市基础设施的可达性。在上述因素的不利位置进行城市化可能会造成与市中心和邻近城市地区的连接困难以及土地资源的浪费。在新发展城市芹苴市的背景下，通过对 Landsat 图像和可访问的地理空间数据源应用多元逻辑回归 (MLR)，探索其城市扩张过程和影响城市化可能性的因素。分析证实，2003 年至 2017 年整个城市出现了显着的城市扩张，主要是在中心区和后河沿岸。城市扩张的主要动力可以通过有效的 MLR（接收器操作特性下的区域 - AUROC = 0.803）来解释，基于与交通可达性、发达城市地区、工业区、海拔、土壤类型和人口相关的六个因素。城市化概率的模拟表明，大多数城市基础设施可达性低的偏远地区难以城市化的概率小于 40%。相比之下，城市化潜力高的地区扩大了滨江地区已经建成的地区。我们的研究结果有助于了解新发展的三角洲城市的城市化驱动因素，以便在城市化仍然受到控制的情况下进行长期规划。城市化概率的模拟表明，大多数城市基础设施可达性低的偏远地区难以城市化的概率小于 40%。相比之下，城市化潜力高的地区扩大了滨江地区已经建成的地区。我们的研究结果有助于了解新发展的三角洲城市的城市化驱动因素，以便在城市化仍然受到控制的情况下进行长期规划。城市化概率的模拟表明，大多数城市基础设施可达性低的偏远地区难以城市化的概率小于 40%。相比之下，城市化潜力高的地区扩大了滨江地区已经建成的地区。我们的研究结果有助于了解新发展的三角洲城市的城市化驱动因素，以便在城市化仍然受到控制的情况下进行长期规划。