Climate change models predict an increase in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climatic events, such as severe droughts. These changes can influence plant reproductive phenology, with potential delayed consequences for plant regeneration and could impact plant-animal interactions. One of the possible responses to these changes in phenology is the modification in crop size, which can further impact seed predation, dispersal and plant recruitment. However, plant responses to droughts and their cascading consequences for animals are still poorly described for tropical species. Here, we evaluated whether phenology and seed predation of a keystone palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana) are influenced by droughts in the Atlantic Forest from southeastern Brazil. We recorded the reproductive phenology and the predation of seeds fallen beneath palms in forest fragments for 4 years, comparing periods impacted by severe droughts to periods of regular rainfall. Flowering and fruiting patterns were correlated with climatic variables, especially temperature and rainfall. The number of bunches with flowers or ripe fruits decreased in periods of drought. Drought also changed the seasonal patterns of reproductive phenology when compared with regular rainfall periods, anticipating flowering and delaying unripe fruit occurrence. Weevils and rodents shifted roles in seed predation among years, irrespective of droughts. Our results indicate that drought affects reproductive phenology of this keystone palm and may compromise plant regeneration. Droughts, however, produce no clear cascading effect on predation of seeds fallen beneath parental plants.

气候变化模型预测极端气候事件（例如严重干旱）的频率、强度和持续时间会增加。这些变化会影响植物生殖物候，对植物再生产生潜在的延迟后果，并可能影响植物与动物的相互作用。对这些物候变化的可能反应之一是作物大小的改变，这会进一步影响种子捕食、传播和植物补充。然而，对于热带物种，植物对干旱的反应及其对动物的级联后果的描述仍然很差。在这里，我们评估了关键棕榈（Syagrus romanzoffiana) 受到巴西东南部大西洋森林干旱的影响。我们记录了 4 年的繁殖物候和落在森林碎片棕榈树下的种子的捕食，将受严重干旱影响的时期与定期降雨的时期进行了比较。开花和结果模式与气候变量相关，尤其是温度和降雨量。在干旱时期，开花或成熟果实的束数减少。与正常降雨期相比，干旱还改变了生殖物候的季节性模式，预测开花并延迟未成熟果实的出现。无论干旱如何，象鼻虫和啮齿动物在不同年份的种子捕食中都发生了变化。我们的研究结果表明，干旱会影响这种基石棕榈的生殖物候，并可能影响植物再生。