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Impact of exposure spatial resolution on seismic loss estimates in regional portfolios
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s10518-021-01194-x
Jamal Dabbeek 1, 2 , Helen Crowley 1 , Vitor Silva 3, 4 , Nicole Paul 3 , Graeme Weatherill 5 , Cecilia I. Nievas 5
Affiliation  

The spatial resolution of exposure data has a substantial impact on the accuracy and reliability of seismic risk estimates. While several studies have investigated the influence of the geographical detail of urban exposure data in earthquake loss models, there is also a need to understand its implications at the regional scale. This study investigates the effects of exposure resolution on the European loss model and its influence on the resulting loss estimates by simulating dozens of exposure and site models (630 models) representing a wide range of assumptions related to the geo-resolution of the exposed asset locations and the associated site conditions. Losses are examined in terms of portfolio average annual loss (AAL) and return period losses at national and sub-national levels. The results indicate that neglecting the uncertainty related to asset locations and their associated site conditions within an exposure model can introduce significant bias to the risk results. The results also demonstrate that disaggregating exposure to a grid or weighting/relocating exposure locations and site properties using a density map of the built areas can improve the accuracy of the estimated losses.



中文翻译:

暴露空间分辨率对区域组合中地震损失估计的影响

暴露数据的空间分辨率对地震风险估计的准确性和可靠性有重大影响。虽然有几项研究调查了地震损失模型中城市暴露数据的地理细节的影响,但还需要了解其在区域范围内的影响。本研究通过模拟数十个暴露和站点模型(630 个模型)来调查暴露分辨率对欧洲损失模型的影响及其对损失估计的影响,这些模型代表与暴露资产位置的地理分辨率相关的广泛假设以及相关的场地条件。损失根据投资组合平均年损失 (AAL) 和国家和次国家层面的回报期损失进行检查。结果表明,在暴露模型中忽略与资产位置及其相关场地条件相关的不确定性可能会给风险结果带来重大偏差。结果还表明,使用建筑区域的密度图将暴露分解到网格或加权/重新定位暴露位置和场地属性可以提高估计损失的准确性。

更新日期:2021-08-10
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