Natural hazards may cause significant disruptions to road infrastructure, subsequently affecting road agencies, users, and productive activities. Despite the existence of infrastructure fragilities to seismic hazard and some operational consequences on network mobility, previous research has not modeled risk in terms of traffic disruptions and consequent travel time delays in subduction environments, analyzing the sensitivity to model parameters and quantified model uncertainty. This study proposes a risk framework to evaluate operational consequences in interurban road networks exposed to seismic hazard using travel time delays and propagate uncertainty in the model. Risk values are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations, and uncertainty is propagated using a polynomial chaos expansion meta-model. The framework was applied to a very critical interurban network in central Chile. Results demonstrate that the parameters that most significantly influence risk are fragility, loss of road capacity, and traffic volume.

中文翻译：

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路网地震风险模型的敏感性分析和不确定性量化

自然灾害可能会对道路基础设施造成重大破坏，进而影响道路机构、用户和生产活动。尽管存在基础设施对地震灾害的脆弱性以及对网络移动性的一些操作后果，但以前的研究并未根据交通中断和俯冲环境中随之而来的旅行时间延迟对风险进行建模，分析对模型参数的敏感性和量化模型不确定性。本研究提出了一个风险框架，以使用旅行时间延迟和传播模型中的不确定性来评估暴露于地震灾害的城际公路网络的运营后果。使用蒙特卡罗模拟评估风险值，并使用多项式混沌扩展元模型传播不确定性。该框架被应用于智利中部一个非常重要的城际网络。结果表明，对风险影响最大的参数是脆弱性、道路容量损失和交通量。