Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Ahead of Print.
Impacts of Karenia brevis red tide blooms have been an increasing cause of concern for fisheries management in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The 2019 Gulf red grouper (Epinephelus morio) stock assessment was confronted with the challenges of quantifying and parameterizing red tides during both historical and projection time periods. Red tide mortality was estimated for each age class in the model solely in 2005 and 2014 during severe events. Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the 2018 red tide and its substantial implications on the status of the population, several projection scenarios were evaluated. Under the assumption of no 2018 red tide mortality, near-term catches were projected to nearly double, a predicted outcome that appeared to be in contrast with recent record low catches and fishing industry perceptions of major stock depletion. In the event that the 2018 red tide caused mortality, but was not accounted for in projections, the recommended catch levels would lead to high probabilities of overfishing and potentially stock collapse. Collectively, these results highlight how consideration of uncertainty in projections can help avoid unintended consequences.

中文翻译：

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从不同的生态系统角度加强单一物种种群评估：墨西哥湾红石斑鱼 (Epinephelus morio) 和赤潮的案例研究

加拿大渔业和水产科学杂志，提前印刷。
Karenia brevis 赤潮爆发的影响越来越引起墨西哥湾（Gulf）渔业管理的关注。2019 年海湾红石斑鱼 (Epinephelus morio) 种群评估面临着在历史和预测时间段内量化和参数化赤潮的挑战。仅在 2005 年和 2014 年严重事件期间，估计模型中每个年龄段的赤潮死亡率。鉴于围绕 2018 年赤潮的相当大的不确定性及其对人口状况的重大影响，我们评估了几种预测情景。在没有 2018 年赤潮死亡率的假设下，预计近期捕捞量将增加近一倍，一个预期的结果似乎与最近创纪录的低捕获量和捕鱼业对主要种群枯竭的看法形成鲜明对比。如果 2018 年赤潮导致死亡，但未在预测中考虑，建议的捕捞水平将导致过度捕捞和潜在种群崩溃的可能性很高。总的来说，这些结果突出了在预测中考虑不确定性如何有助于避免意外后果。