ABSTRACT

The research measures post-disaster long-term housing recovery to assess community resilient recovery using the case of Broadmoor, a community located in New Orleans. Dynamic economic resilience scenarios calculate post-disaster housing recovery and differences of rebuilding using three housing recovery scenarios (baseline, reference recovery and dynamic economic resilience). The baseline scenario projects changes in housing market values without a disaster. The reference recovery scenario calculates post-disaster housing reconstruction values (e.g. repair rates and housing rebuilding permits), and a hypothetical housing recovery profile using damage assessments and building permits for rebuilding based on available investments (insurance and buy-outs). The dynamic economic resilience scenario models all potential and accelerated investments (uninsured versus insured, or buyouts for homeowners). A future dynamic economic resilience recovery scenario takes into account the benefits of housing reconstruction improvements, (e.g. levee and pump investments). The results identify an ideal sustainable long-term recovery threshold of three years after the disaster event. The results reveal the conceptualised dynamic economic resilience scenarios leads to shorter time-paths for recovery, and that the sustainable long-term recovery threshold is approximately three years after the disaster event.

摘要

该研究以位于新奥尔良的社区 Broadmoor 为例，衡量了灾后长期住房恢复情况，以评估社区的弹性恢复情况。动态经济弹性情景使用三种住房恢复情景（基线、参考恢复和动态经济弹性）计算灾后住房恢复和重建差异。基线情景预测住房市场价值的变化而不会发生灾难。参考恢复情景计算灾后住房重建价值（例如维修率和住房重建许可），并使用损坏评估和基于可用投资（保险和收购）重建的建筑许可来计算假设的住房恢复概况。动态经济弹性情景模拟所有潜在的和加速的投资（未投保与投保，或房主买断）。未来动态的经济复原力恢复情景考虑了住房重建改善的好处（例如堤坝和水泵投资）。结果确定了灾难事件发生后三年的理想可持续长期恢复阈值。结果表明，概念化的动态经济弹性情景导致恢复的时间路径更短，可持续的长期恢复阈值约为灾难事件发生后三年。结果确定了灾难事件发生后三年的理想可持续长期恢复阈值。结果表明，概念化的动态经济弹性情景导致恢复的时间路径更短，可持续的长期恢复阈值约为灾难事件发生后三年。结果确定了灾难事件发生后三年的理想可持续长期恢复阈值。结果表明，概念化的动态经济弹性情景导致恢复的时间路径更短，可持续的长期恢复阈值约为灾难事件发生后三年。