GPR-MCS model of reliability analysis of key blocks and its engineering application,International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics

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GPR-MCS model of reliability analysis of key blocks and its engineering application
International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-31 , DOI: 10.1002/nag.3222
Peng He ₁ , Gang Wang ₁ , Fei Xu ₂ , Shang‐qu Sun ₁

Affiliation

Reasonable rock bolting schemes for potentially unstable blocks should be proposed and optimized in order to prevent rockfall hazard during tunnel construction. However, the reliability index of key block caused by uncertainty of geometric and mechanics parameters is not easy to be obtained by numerical simulation. Since the performance function of stability analysis of supporting key block is too complex, it is also difficult to calculate the reliability by using analytical and graphic methods rapidly. In this paper, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model was established instead of the explicit function of key block. The safety factor of supporting key block calculated by UnWedge procedure was taken as the sample output of response model. With the GPR model coupling Monte Carlo Simulation (GPR-MCS), the failure probability of key block could be predicted rapidly. The reliability of key block with different supporting schemes were analyzed, and the optimization of support parameters for key block was also carried out. It has direct meaning to prevention and control of dangerous key block during tunnel construction.

中文翻译：

关键块体可靠性分析的GPR-MCS模型及其工程应用

应针对潜在不稳定块体提出合理的岩石锚固方案并进行优化，以防止隧道施工过程中的落石危险。然而，由于几何和力学参数的不确定性而导致的关键块体的可靠性指标不易通过数值模拟得到。由于支撑关键块稳定性分析的性能函数过于复杂，也很难通过分析和图形方法快速计算可靠性。本文建立了高斯过程回归（GPR）模型，而不是关键块的显式函数。以UnWedge程序计算出的支撑关键块安全系数作为响应模型的样本输出。使用 GPR 模型耦合蒙特卡罗模拟 (GPR-MCS)，可以快速预测关键块的失败概率。分析了不同支护方案的关键块体的可靠性，并对关键块体的支护参数进行了优化。对隧道施工过程中危险关键块的防控具有直接意义。

更新日期：2021-08-09

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