This article summarizes insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to emission reduction targets – so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – in order to combat global warming. The study suggests that aligning NDCs with the commonly agreed 2°C temperature target will induce global economic costs of roughly 1% in 2030. However, these costs are unevenly distributed across regions. Countries exporting fossil fuels are most adversely affected from the transition towards a low-carbon economy. In order to reduce adjustment costs at the global and regional level, comprehensive emissions trading which exploits least-cost abatement options is strongly desirable to avoid contentious normative debates on equitable burden sharing. Lump-sum recycling of revenues from emissions pricing, in equal amounts to every household, appeals as an attractive strategy to mitigate regressive effects and thereby improving the social acceptability of stringent climate policy.

本文总结了第 36 届能源建模论坛研究 (EMF36) 对温室气体减排目标的经济调整成本的大小和分布的见解。根据《巴黎协定》，各国已承诺实现减排目标——即所谓的国家自主贡献 (NDC)——以应对全球变暖。该研究表明，将 NDC 与共同商定的 2°C 温度目标保持一致将导致 2030 年全球经济成本下降约 1%。然而，这些成本在各地区分布不均。向低碳经济转型对化石燃料出口国的不利影响最大。为了减少全球和区域层面的调整成本，利用成本最低的减排方案的综合排放交易是非常可取的，以避免关于公平负担分担的有争议的规范性辩论。排放定价收入的一次性回收，相当于每个家庭的收入，作为一种有吸引力的策略来减轻回归效应，从而提高严格的气候政策的社会接受度。